USDA’s own estimate says its SNAP proposal would cut off 6.3 million people

USDA proposed a rule on November 10 that its own analysis says would remove 6.3 million people in 3.2 million households from SNAP in fiscal 2029, the first year of full effect. That is 17.6 percent of participants, and the agency says the affected households would exceed federal income or resource limits once states apply the standard tests.

The proposal would end broad-based categorical eligibility through noncash Temporary Assistance for Needy Families services. Under the TANF pathway, only households receiving TANF “assistance” as defined in federal welfare rules would remain categorically eligible. USDA estimates 45 state agencies would have to perform additional eligibility work, including more resource assessments.

No one loses benefits because of this notice alone. It is a proposed rule, comments are due December 10, and USDA would have to issue a final rule before the change took effect.

USDA estimates the proposal would reduce federal SNAP transfers by $44.649 billion from fiscal 2027 through 2031. It projects $1.238 billion in added state-administration expense over five years, with states bearing $928.5 million and the federal government reimbursing $309.5 million. The agency also estimates $71.7 million in added household paperwork burden.

School-meal effects are narrower than the loss of automatic certification suggests, but not zero. USDA estimates 1.78 million children would no longer be categorically eligible for free meals through SNAP. About 1.66 million would remain eligible for free meals through another process, 93,000 would move to reduced-price meals and 28,000 would pay full price.

That separate application process still moves work onto families and school systems. USDA estimates districts would process 197,000 additional school-meal applications and spend about 30,000 additional hours doing it in the 2028–29 school year.

The spillover reaches other nutrition programs. USDA estimates 42,000 children could potentially lose Summer EBT in 2029, including 13,000 who remain eligible but do not apply, and 5,500 women, infants and children would no longer qualify for WIC after individualized review.

USDA says the change would make eligibility more consistent nationwide, align SNAP with the statute and preserve benefits for households that meet federal need tests. Its analysis says states’ higher income and asset thresholds allow some households above federal limits to qualify categorically.

The central criticism is that the agency calls the lost benefits a fiscal saving while shifting verification costs to states and households. The Food Research & Action Center says broad-based categorical eligibility streamlines applications and that ending it does not improve program integrity. USDA’s civil-rights analysis acknowledges potential effects on households headed by people who are Asian, Hispanic or multiracial, as well as households with children or elderly members; the agency proposes guidance, outreach and monitoring as mitigation.

The proposal revives an eligibility fight from the first Trump administration. USDA proposed a different restriction in 2019, and the Biden administration withdrew it in 2021. The new version uses the federal definition of TANF assistance and asks for comment on alternatives.

The accountability question is not only how much Washington saves. It is whether requiring 3.2 million households to undergo additional income and resource screening makes the program more accurate, or mainly makes assistance harder to keep. The public record now has USDA’s own estimate of the trade: fewer federal benefits, more eligibility checks and millions of people removed at full effect.